Global Crude Prices to Fluctuate in 2026 as China Stays Strong

Global crude oil prices are expected to undergo notable fluctuations in 2026, as the international market contends with increasing fragmentation and heightened tensions surrounding energy resources. This assessment emerges from a recent report by a prominent think tank released in Beijing.

The report emphasizes that China is likely to persist in its energy diversification strategy to bolster energy security. An expert from the CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute pointed out that the nation's approach is central to navigating the evolving energy landscape.

CNPC ETRI, recognized as one of China's leading energy think tanks, has unveiled its annual report on the oil and gas industry, entitled the 2025 Report on Oil and Gas Industry Development in Beijing.

According to the report, the past year has witnessed an escalation in global geopolitical risks, which have significantly altered the landscape of energy supply, resulting in mounting challenges to energy security.

Two primary scenarios for 2026 have been articulated in the report. One scenario is predicated on market fundamentals as the main determinant of global oil prices, while the other envisions these prices being shaped predominantly by geopolitical conflicts. The report forecasts that international crude prices could fluctuate between $60 and $75 per barrel.

In light of these anticipated challenges, the report predicts that China will exhibit resilience in its energy supply. This resilience will be driven by continuous increases in domestic production, improvements in quality through technology advancements, and ongoing diversification efforts.

Liu Jia, the chief research fellow at CNPC ETRI, noted that China will adhere to core principles vital for energy security, which include a focus on the population's needs and the delicate balancing act between development and security.

Furthermore, Liu highlighted that the Chinese government is committed to long-term strategic planning and stability, which, along with the efficacy of market mechanisms and enterprise collaboration, is essential to safeguarding overall energy security.

During the 14th Five-Year Plan period from 2021 to 2025, China's newly proven geological reserves of oil surpassed 7 billion tons, while natural gas reserves exceeded 7 trillion cubic meters. These figures represent an impressive 43 percent increase for oil and a 40 percent increase for natural gas compared to the previous Five-Year Plan.

Over the last decade, China's energy consumption has risen at an annual rate of 3.6 percent, contributing to an overall economic growth rate of 5.6 percent. This trend underscores the interplay between energy demand and economic expansion.

The country's overseas oil production saw significant gains, with an annual increase of 4 million tons over the last five years, attributed to oilfields controlled by Chinese entities and strategic initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative.

Additionally, the National Energy Administration's data suggested that China's crude oil production hit a record high of 215 million tons last year, marking a pivotal moment for the country's energy sector.