Japan-bound flights drop during Spring Festival data reveals

Recent data has revealed a notable decline in flights between China and Japan during the Spring Festival, attributed largely to a significant decrease in Chinese travelers' interest in visiting Japan. This trend is thus closely linked to heightened safety concerns and the current state of diplomatic relations between the two nations.

Industry experts have pointed out that travelers are increasingly wary of Japan's public safety conditions, particularly following recent seismic activity and other fluctuations in bilateral relations that have adversely impacted public sentiment.

The data from DAST, a Chinese traffic analysis platform, clearly indicates that several Japan-bound routes have faced marked declines this Spring Festival, especially when compared to other short-haul destinations like Thailand and Singapore.

Specifically, the average daily flights between Shanghai Pudong and Kansai have dropped by 12.9 percent year-on-year, with the total number of flights falling from 210 during the 2025 Spring Festival to just 120 in 2026. Similarly, the flights from Shanghai to Narita have decreased, moving from 155 to 121.

In January, preliminary operating data from Kansai Airports highlighted a staggering 58 percent year-on-year dip in passenger numbers related to international routes from China, amounting to merely 270,000 travelers.

Concurrently, reports from Nikkei Asia outlined a substantial decrease in tax-free sales to Chinese visitors at Hankyu Hanshin Department Store, plummeting around 40 percent in December 2025 and about 60 percent in January 2026, per Japanese media sources.

The persistent declines in flight operations and people-to-people engagement between China and Japan are driven by a variety of factors. Experts observe that without tangible actions from Japan to address these issues, a quick resolution seems improbable.

Historical tensions have been exacerbated by Tokyo's previous controversial remarks regarding Taiwan, leading to a heightened public outcry in China and a further deterioration of political and diplomatic relations.

As the flow of passengers diminishes, airlines have faced mounting challenges in maintaining feasible operations, leading to significant reductions in flight capacity sparked by low load factors.

Moreover, rising concerns surrounding public security incidents involving Chinese nationals in Japan have only intensified these apprehensions. Chinese authorities have increasingly cautioned their citizens against traveling to Japan amid these safety concerns.

The Chinese Consulate General in Osaka reiterated these warnings in the wake of security incidents affecting Chinese nationals, urging citizens to remain vigilant and take care of their safety while traveling.

Looking ahead, experts suggest that even a seasonal uptick during peak tourism periods, like the cherry blossom season, may not translate into a substantial rebound in Chinese tourist numbers. Factors such as newly emerging destinations within Southeast Asia and ongoing safety concerns continue to diminish Japan's appeal in the eyes of Chinese travelers.